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Moonwell Brief · Joel ObafemiIssue №005 · May 2026

Moonwell Brief

Lending Turns, Vaults Don't

Core lending posted its first net inflow of the year and retention hit 91.8 percent as USDC yields cleared 9 percent, while the vaults bled a fifth straight month, protocol take rate fell to 0.29 percent, and Moonwell launched on Ethereum.

BaseOptimismMoonbeamEthereum
12 min readCite this issue

§ 01Headline finding

he lending side turned. As of May 31, 2026, Moonwell held $100.0 million supplied, down 3.3 percent on the month, but the composition flipped: Core lending grew to $79.2 million on a genuine net inflow, the first constant-price gain of the year, with Base Core adding $3.2 million. The combined total slipped only because the vaults fell a fifth straight month, down 19.9 percent to $20.8 million. Net dollar retention reached 91.8 percent, its best of the year, and bad debt eroded further to $5.0 million.

After the February deleveraging and a two-month floor, May was the first month suppliers added to Core lending faster than they withdrew. USDC utilization climbed to 90.5 percent, lifting its supply yield well above the risk-free rate. Yet the protocol earned less than ever from it: with borrowing volumes low, the take rate fell to 0.29 percent. And at month-end Moonwell launched on Ethereum through MIP-E00, its first new deployment since the Base and Optimism era, with negligible day-one liquidity.

§ 02Overview

The turn: supply by component, December to May
Core lendingVaults
$0$55.6M$111.2M$166.9M$222.5MDecJanFebMarAprMay
Core lending and vaults stack to combined supply. Core bottomed near $74M in March and turned up to $79.2M by May, the first net inflow of the year, while the vaults bled a fifth straight month to $20.8M. Hover any month for the split.
Source: GraphQL indexer + on-chain capture (oracle-priced, constant-price)
Month over month, Apr 30 to May 31, 2026
MetricApr 30May 31Change
Combined supplied$103.4M$100.0M−$3.4M
Core lending$77.5M$79.2M+$1.8M
Vaults TVL$25.9M$20.8M−$5.2M
Active suppliers16,54516,000−545
Bad debt (shortfall)$5.30M$5.05M−$300K
Protocol revenue$49.4K$24.6K−$24.8K

These levels are oracle-priced at each month-end, so the change reflects both flows and token price drift; the constant-price net flow is given in the headline.

Moonwell by chain, as of May 31, 2026
ChainCore suppliedVaults TVLCombinedCore borrowedCore utilization
Base$73.7M$20.8M$94.5M$29.6M40.1%
Optimism$4.1M$0$4.1M$2.3M56.5%
Moonbeam$1.4M$0$1.4M$30K2.4%
Ethereum$0$0$0n/an/a
Moonwell total$79.2M$20.8M$100.0M$31.9M40.2%

Core lending rose 2.3 percent while vaults fell 19.9 percent, so the combined total eased 3.3 percent. Optimism continued expanding, its utilization climbing to 56.5 percent. Ethereum launched at month-end but carried no measurable supply at the May 31 snapshot. All USD figures are constant-price, read from the Moonwell oracle at the end-of-month block on each chain.

Suppliers finally added to Core lending, and USDC paid 9 percent. The protocol's own cut of it fell to 0.19 percent, the thinnest of the year.

§ 03Markets and real yield

USDC ran hot: $15.2 million supplied against $13.8 million borrowed, 90.5 percent utilization, an 8.43 percent base supply APY. MORPHO reached $12.0 million, having grown every month of the year, and AERO climbed to $8.6 million.

Stablecoin base supply APY vs the risk-free rate, Dec to May
USDCEURCUSDS1-mo T-bill
0%3.34%6.68%10.02%13.36%DecJanFebMarAprMay
Base supply APY at each month-end against the 1-month US Treasury yield (the risk-free reference). Stablecoin yields compressed through the bear market, then jumped in May as borrowing demand returned: USDC reached 8.4 percent at the close (and cleared 9 percent intra-month) and EURC spiked above 12 percent. Hover for each month.
Source: On-chain capture (headline supply APY at the month-end block); T-bill = FRED DGS1MO
Largest Base Core markets by supply, as of May 31, 2026
MarketSuppliedBorrowedUtilizationBase supply APYBase borrow APY
USDC$15.2M$13.8M90.5%8.43%10.44%
MORPHO$12.0M$400K3.6%0.02%0.82%
cbBTC$10.5M$1.5M14.2%0.11%0.88%
WETH$9.1M$6.5M72.1%0.66%1.01%
AERO$8.6M$2.2M25.8%1.00%6.12%
LBTC$4.0M$300K7.7%0.03%0.47%
cbXRP$3.4M$1.1M32.0%0.00%1.01%
cbETH$2.9M$1.6M55.0%0.01%1.01%

For the first time in the series, USDC suppliers earned a clear premium over the risk-free rate from real lending: 8.43 percent base plus 1.25 points of WELL for 9.67 percent all-in, against the 3.72 percent T-bill. EURC, with a small, highly-utilized book, ran even higher. The recovery in dollar yield was real, but it sat on a small borrow base.

Real yield, selected Base markets, May 2026 (vs 3.72% T-bill)
MarketBase supply APYWELL incentiveAll-in supply APY
EURC12.37%+0.10%12.47%
USDC8.43%+1.25%9.67%
WETH0.66%+0.34%1.00%
AERO1.00%+0.02%1.02%

§ 04Wallets and risk

Concentration reached its high for the year as the lending side recovered: the top 10 wallets held 33.3 percent of supplied value and the top 50 held 57.5 percent, with active suppliers down to 16,000. The recovery in Core dollars came from larger holders, not the return of small depositors. Risk kept healing: bad debt eased to $5.0 million from $5.3 million, led by cbETH working down to $1.5 million, though the same three illiquid markets still held nearly all of it.

Cohort retention triangle: do depositors stay?
Colour byeach cell: W = wallets · $ = dollars
CohortM0M1M2M3M4M5
Dec 2025
20,028 wallets
100%
W 100%
84.8%
W 85.6%
56.5%
W 76.9%
48.5%
W 73%
46.9%
W 66.7%
43.3%
W 63.3%
Jan 2026
19,536 wallets
100%
W 100%
63.9%
W 83.8%
56.2%
W 79.1%
49.6%
W 71.6%
48.6%
W 67.9%
Feb 2026
17,994 wallets
100%
W 100%
87.4%
W 88.3%
79.4%
W 78.6%
73.5%
W 74.9%
Mar 2026
17,975 wallets
100%
W 100%
87.5%
W 83.5%
81.4%
W 78.9%
Apr 2026
16,545 wallets
100%
W 100%
91.8%
W 89.8%
May 2026
16,000 wallets
100%
W 100%
Each row is a monthly cohort (the active deposit base of wallets ≥ $10 at that month-end); columns are months since the cohort started. Each cell shows dollar retention (NRR, large) and wallet retention (W). Toggle the colour by metric. The December cohort kept 63 percent of its wallets but only 43 percent of its dollars by May, the wallets-hold-while-capital-thins pattern in one view. Read it down a column (same age) to compare cohorts fairly, and down the calendar to spot the period effect: cohorts that formed before February retained dollars poorly because they lived through the oracle incident and deleveraging, not because those depositors were weaker; cohorts from February onward, in calmer water, held far better.
Source: Envio GraphQL indexer: per-wallet SupplyDelta + RateSample, oracle-priced, constant-price, $10 floor
Supply concentration: top-10 wallet share, Dec to May
0%8.99%17.98%26.97%35.96%DecJanFebMarAprMay
As small positions left and the recovery came from larger holders, the top 10 wallets' share of supply climbed from a quarter to a third, reaching 33.3 percent in May.
Source: GraphQL indexer (combined core + vaults)
Bad debt by market, May 31, 2026
MarketShortfall
cbETH$1.52M
cbXRP$1.02M
VIRTUAL$910K
WETH$490K
Total (all markets)$5.05M

Anthias Labs moved from tuning parameters to clearing bad debt. Its late-May recommendations proposed a $550,120 reserve-funded repayment of debt held by 12 addresses that supply no collateral, concentrated in WETH, AERO, wstETH, USDC, and cbBTC, and a cbETH-incident remediation step that raises affected borrowers' recovery from about 12 to 17 percent.

§ 05Liquidations

The calmest month of the period: 127 events seizing $17,500 of collateral against $16,600 of debt repaid, the lowest in the series and a fraction of February's $7.1 million. The deleveraging was firmly over.

§ 06Vaults

The vaults remained the one part of Moonwell that did not recover, falling to $20.8 million from $25.9 million, a fifth consecutive decline. They have now shed roughly 59 percent of their January TVL even as Core lending stabilized. Flagship USDC and ETH still held the bulk at $9.4 million and $8.6 million.

Moonwell-Morpho vaults, as of May 31, 2026
VaultTVL
Flagship USDC$9.4M
Flagship ETH$8.6M
Flagship EURC$1.4M
Frontier cbBTC$1.3M
Ecosystem USDC$100K
All vaults$20.8M

§ 07Financials

The thinnest month of the year for protocol economics. Gross fees fell to $129,800 as borrowing volumes stayed low, and protocol revenue was just $24,600 at a 0.29 percent annualized take rate, the lowest in the series. The paradox of May is that suppliers earned more (USDC near 9 percent) while the protocol earned less, because the high USDC rate sat on a thin borrow base and most of what borrowers paid passed straight through to suppliers.

Fees and revenue, May 2026
LineAmount
Gross fees: borrower interest$119,600
Gross fees: liquidation bonus$900
Gross fees: Morpho vault performance$9,300
Total gross fees$129,800
Protocol revenue (all sources)$24,600
Annualized take rate0.29%

§ 08OEV

OEV recaptured was $14,800 across 11 events. The more consequential development was MIP-X56, executed this month, which improves the accuracy of the OEV fee split between the protocol and liquidators. The resulting protocol capture share is omitted pending the corrected calculation.

§ 09Governance

May was the Ethereum month, eight proposals headlined by the new deployment: recognizing WELL on Ethereum, establishing governance there, and setting launch parameters.

Selected proposals, May 2026
ProposalTitleVoters
MIP-E00Moonwell Ethereum Launch Parameters182
MIP-X55Recognizing WELL on Ethereum388
MIP-X58Moonwell Governance on Ethereum282
MIP-X56Improve OEV Fee-Split Accuracy132
MIP-X57Automated Liquidity Incentive Proposal189

The Ethereum launch carried with broad support, though MIP-X58 drew 7 million WELL against, the most opposition since March's contested Moonriver vote. MIP-E00, the first proposal executed on Ethereum, drew 182 distinct voters across the Base, Optimism, and Ethereum vote collectors.

§ 10Cross-deployment and token

Ranked against the other Base lending venues, Moonwell was the third-largest by core lending supply at the May close, behind Morpho Blue and Aave V3 and ahead of Compound V3, Fluid, Euler, and Seamless. Its $73.7 million of Base core lending held third through a quarter that nearly halved Aave's Base book, which fell to $718 million from $1.50 billion in January, while Morpho Blue reached $4.20 billion. The five Moonwell vaults are Morpho Blue deposits, counted under Morpho's total, so they are left out of the ranking to avoid double-counting.

Base lending venues by supplied USD, May 31, 2026
RankVenueSupplied
1Morpho Blue$4.20 billion
2Aave V3$718 million
3Moonwell$73.7 million
4Compound V3$36.0 million
5Fluid$36.0 million
6Euler V2$10.9 million
7Seamless$100K

WELL closed May at $0.004165, an $18.9 million market cap. Staked stkWELL reached 28.4 percent of circulating supply, a fourth straight monthly increase, the governance base deepening through the whole drawdown.

Methodology

Core lending USD is on-chain from the Moonwell oracle at the month-end block; vaults, flows, retention, concentration, and risk are from the protocol indexer and on-chain comptroller reads. Financials are the dashboard ledger. Comparators are DefiLlama (TVL plus borrowed). Flows and retention are constant-price. The risk-free reference is the 1-month US Treasury yield (3.72 percent). Ethereum carried no measurable supply at the May 31 block. A net-of-gas liquidator breakdown is pending.

§ 11Looking ahead

June, the close of the second quarter, is the first full month of the four-chain era. Watch whether Ethereum attracts real liquidity beyond launch dust, whether the vaults finally stop bleeding after losing nearly 60 percent of their January TVL, whether Core lending builds on May's first net inflow, whether the stubborn cbETH bad debt finally clears, and whether MIP-X56 starts to move the OEV capture rate.

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