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Moonwell Brief · Joel ObafemiIssue №002 · February 2026

Moonwell Brief

The Deleveraging

Moonwell shed more than a third of its supply in February as liquidations quadrupled to 3,627 events, net dollar retention fell to 64 percent, and bad debt grew to $6.3 million even through the unwind.

BaseOptimismMoonbeam
12 min readCite this issue

§ 01Headline finding

ebruary was a deleveraging. As of February 28, 2026, Moonwell held $110.7 million supplied, down 36 percent from January's $172.9 million, with Core lending at $77.8 million and the vaults at $32.9 million. On a constant-price basis the protocol lost a net $48.3 million of supply, liquidations rose roughly fourfold to 3,627 events seizing $7.1 million of collateral, and net dollar retention fell to 63.9 percent from 84.8 percent.

The contraction was overwhelmingly a Base event: Base gave back a constant-price net $47.9 million, split $33.8 million Core and $14.1 million vaults. The single largest borrower from January, a wallet that had topped the supply table at $7.4 million, was liquidated on February 15 for $1.16 million in a wstETH position. And the unwind did not clean the books: bad debt actually grew to $6.3 million from January's $4.3 million, as a cbETH oracle failure added a new pocket of underwater positions that governance spent the month addressing.

§ 02Overview

Net supply flow by chain, February 2026 (constant-price)
-$36.5M-$27.4M-$18.2M-$9.12M$0Base CoreBase VaultsOptimismMoonbeam
February's deleveraging: a constant-price net $48 million left the protocol, $33.8 million of it from Base Core and $14.1 million from the Base vaults. Optimism and Moonbeam barely moved. Hover any bar for the figure.
Source: GraphQL indexer (constant-price: balances valued at a single Feb-end oracle price map)
Month over month, Jan 31 to Feb 28, 2026
MetricJan 31Feb 28Change
Combined supplied$172.9M$110.7M−$62.1M
Core lending$122.1M$77.8M−$44.3M
Vaults TVL$50.8M$32.9M−$17.9M
Active suppliers19,53617,994−1,542
Bad debt (shortfall)$4.30M$6.34M+$2.0M
Protocol revenue$103.2K$275.2K+$172.0K

These levels are oracle-priced at each month-end, so the change reflects both flows and token price drift; the constant-price net flow is given in the headline.

Moonwell by chain, as of February 28, 2026
ChainCore suppliedVaults TVLCombinedCore borrowedCore utilization
Base$72.9M$32.9M$105.8M$29.6M40.7%
Optimism$3.0M$0$3.0M$800K28.0%
Moonbeam$2.0M$0$2.0M$40K2.0%
Moonwell total$77.8M$32.9M$110.7M$30.5M39.2%

Core supply fell 36.3 percent, vault TVL 35.2 percent, the combined total 35.9 percent. Active suppliers eased to 17,994 from 19,536. Core utilization held near January's level at 39.2 percent. All USD figures are constant-price, read from the Moonwell oracle at the end-of-month block on each chain.

The deleveraging cut supply by a third but did not clear the bad debt. It grew, from $4.3 million to $6.3 million.

§ 03Markets and real yield

The large Base markets roughly halved: USDC to $19.2 million supplied from $34.0 million, cbBTC to $10.5 million from $22.7 million. MORPHO was the exception, growing to $10.0 million, the only material market to expand. WETH ran the hottest large market at 90.4 percent utilization.

Largest Base Core markets by supply, as of February 28, 2026
MarketSuppliedBorrowedUtilizationBase supply APYBase borrow APY
USDC$19.2M$12.5M65.1%3.10%5.35%
cbBTC$10.5M$1.4M13.4%0.10%0.83%
MORPHO$10.0M$400K3.8%0.02%0.89%
WETH$8.4M$7.6M90.4%3.80%4.69%
AERO$4.8M$900K19.4%0.57%4.57%
wstETH$4.7M$600K12.8%0.08%0.78%
cbXRP$3.5M$2.2M63.0%9.92%25.99%
LBTC$2.7M$100K3.5%0.01%0.21%

Stripping WELL incentives from the base rate, no clean market paid a real premium over the 3.74 percent T-bill in February. USDC suppliers earned 3.10 percent base, below risk-free, lifted to 4.06 percent only with a near-one-point WELL boost. The high cbETH (17.2 percent) and VIRTUAL (55.1 percent) rates are distortions from stressed conditions and the cbETH oracle issue, not durable yield.

Real yield, selected Base markets, February 2026 (vs 3.74% T-bill)
MarketBase supply APYWELL incentiveAll-in supply APY
WETH3.80%+0.33%4.13%
USDC3.10%+0.96%4.06%
EURC2.11%+0.10%2.21%
cbXRP9.92%+0.21%10.14%

§ 04Wallets and risk

Concentration ticked up as smaller positions left: the top 10 wallets held 27.3 percent of supplied value and the top 50 held 53.6 percent. USDC and WETH together were 68 percent of all borrowing. The risk read worsened despite the liquidation wave: $6.3 million of borrower positions ended the month in shortfall, up from $4.3 million in January, with 136 positions already below a health factor of 1.0. The new pocket was cbETH ($1.6 million of bad debt), joining cbXRP ($1.7 million) and VIRTUAL ($1.4 million) as the markets where underwater positions accumulate faster than liquidators clear them.

Bad debt by market, February 28, 2026
MarketShortfall
cbXRP$1.72M
cbETH$1.57M
VIRTUAL$1.43M
WETH$480K
Total (all markets)$6.34M

On the parameter side, Anthias Labs' February recommendations were routine and predated the oracle incident: incremental cuts to LBTC and tBTC collateral factors to separate their risk from cbBTC, flatter interest-rate curves on the low-utilization BTC markets, and another increase to the WELL borrow cap.

§ 05Liquidations

Liquidations were February's defining stress signal: 3,627 events seizing $7.11 million of collateral against $6.46 million of debt repaid, versus 971 events and $1.60 million in January. Base carried 2,715 events and $7.02 million of the value. The activity clustered in mid-February and in two collateral types, wstETH ($2.34 million across 107 events) and cbBTC ($2.32 million across 412).

Largest liquidated collateral by asset, February 2026
CollateralSeizedEvents
wstETH$2,341,000107
cbBTC$2,319,800412
AERO$897,800351
WETH$648,900980
cbXRP$206,00091
All collateral, all chains$7,111,2003,627

Liquidations concentrated among a few operators working the stress. The most active address cleared 768 liquidations for $110,100 of gross profit.

Top liquidators by gross profit, February 2026
LiquidatorGross profitVolumeEvents
0xf4cd…ec68$110,100$1.20M768
0x4de9…eb60$98,000$1.09M182
0xe3bc…ba07$96,400$1.06M78

Profit is gross; a net-of-gas breakdown is not stored and is noted as a gap.

§ 06Vaults

The Moonwell-Morpho vaults fell to $32.9 million from $50.8 million, a constant-price net outflow of $14.1 million. The Flagship USDC and ETH vaults remained the largest; the Ecosystem USDC vault nearly emptied, to about $200K.

Moonwell-Morpho vaults, as of February 28, 2026
VaultTVL
Flagship USDC$15.5M
Flagship ETH$9.8M
Flagship EURC$4.3M
Frontier cbBTC$3.2M
Ecosystem USDC$200K
All vaults$32.9M

§ 07Financials

Gross fees more than doubled to $969,500, but the rise was the liquidation wave, not healthy growth: liquidation bonuses alone were $646,300 of it. The same wave drove protocol revenue to $275,200, almost entirely the 3 percent protocol seize share of liquidated collateral, lifting the annualized take rate to a one-off 3.24 percent from January's 0.70 percent. It is a stress-driven figure that will not persist.

Fees and revenue, February 2026
LineAmount
Gross fees: borrower interest$307,900
Gross fees: liquidation bonus$646,300
Gross fees: Morpho vault performance$15,400
Total gross fees$969,500
Protocol revenue (all sources)$275,200
Annualized take rate3.24%

Seized collateral is valued on the oracle basis the liquidations actually executed on. February's cbETH oracle incident decoupled that basis from market price; valued at market, the protocol's liquidation revenue would read higher, closer to third-party trackers such as Token Terminal. The oracle basis is used here for internal consistency with how the liquidations cleared on-chain.

§ 08OEV

OEV recaptured rose to $369,300 across 45 events, tracking the liquidation surge. The protocol capture share is omitted pending a correction to how OEV capture was calculated.

§ 09Governance

Four measures executed (two after an initial procedural version was cancelled), dominated by oracle and incentive maintenance during the stress.

Proposals executed, February 2026
ProposalTitleVoters
MIP-B57Revert cbETH Market Oracle on Base410
MIP-X43Activate OEV Wrappers for Non-Composite Markets289
MIP-X42Anthias Labs Monthly Recommendations (Feb)288
MIP-X44Automated Liquidity Incentive Proposal381

MIP-B57, reverting the cbETH market oracle on Base, drew the broadest participation of the month at 410 voters and is the governance counterpart to both the cbETH rate distortion in §03 and the cbETH bad debt in §04. MIP-X43 activated oracle-value wrappers on more markets, the first step toward raising the OEV capture rate.

§ 10Cross-deployment and token

Base lending venues by supplied USD, February 2026
$0$796.9M$1.59B$2.39B$3.19BMorpho BlueAave V3MoonwellFluidCompound V3
Moonwell (highlighted) ranks third on Base by supplied USD, an order of magnitude below Morpho Blue and Aave V3 but clear of the next tier. The linear scale shows the gap honestly.
Source: DefiLlama Base TVL + borrowed; Moonwell row is its own oracle-priced Base core

Ranked against the other Base lending venues, Moonwell was the third-largest by core lending supply at the February close, behind Morpho Blue and Aave V3 and ahead of Fluid, Compound V3, Seamless, and Euler. Its $72.9 million of Base core lending held that position even as the whole Base lending market contracted with it. The five Moonwell vaults are Morpho Blue deposits, counted under Morpho's total, so they are left out of the ranking to avoid double-counting.

Base lending venues by supplied USD, February 28, 2026
RankVenueSupplied
1Morpho Blue$2.95 billion
2Aave V3$1.27 billion
3Moonwell$72.9 million
4Fluid$59.7 million
5Compound V3$42.6 million
6Seamless$5.6 million
7Euler V2$4.6 million

WELL fell with the market, closing February at $0.00427 for a $19.4 million market cap. Staked stkWELL held at 24.9 percent of circulating supply, roughly steady through the stress.

Methodology

Core lending USD is on-chain from the Moonwell oracle at the month-end block; vaults, flows, retention, concentration, and risk are from the protocol indexer and on-chain comptroller reads. Financials are the dashboard ledger (gross fees vs protocol revenue). Comparators are DefiLlama (TVL plus borrowed). Flows and retention are constant-price. The risk-free reference is the 1-month US Treasury yield (3.74 percent). A net-of-gas liquidator breakdown is pending.

§ 11Looking ahead

After a 36 percent drawdown, March's question is whether the bleed stops and whether the $6.3 million of bad debt clears or festers. Watch Core supply near $70 million, net dollar retention off its 64 percent low, MORPHO holding its gains, and the OEV capture rate now that MIP-X43 has activated more wrappers.

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